Poland Banking Market Report 2023-2025: Notable 11%+ Growth to PLN 1.92 Trillion Reflects Polish Clients’ Trust in Banks

Dublin, Jan. 10, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The “Banking Market in Poland 2023-2025: CEE Banking Series” report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com’s offering.

This report is the latest full update of the comprehensive annual publication about the banking sector in Poland. It describes the present market structure and recent trends in the market and also provides short-term estimates of key banking volumes for the years 2023 through 2025.

Compared to the previous edition, it has been revised and updated. When preparing this report, the analyst responded to feedback received from its clients and incorporated several improvements that make this new issue even more reader-friendly and informative.

The competitive landscape within the Polish banking sector has not changed much over the past few years. The group of major commercial banks remained unchanged, concurrently increasing its market share slightly, indicating a trend toward growing concentration. Noteworthy in this context is the government-owned SPV Bank – BGK, which has ascended the top list of banks due to its exclusive rights in distributing support and lending funds from both the government and the EU.

While there has been little M&A activity in the banking sector recently, an exception from this trend is Velo Bank. This institution is currently available for acquisition following a compelled restructuring and takeover by the government of the erstwhile Getin Noble Bank. The sales tender is presently open, with expectations for closure early in 2024.

The surge in market interest rates, rising from zero to approximately 6.5% in 2022, had a profound impact on the banking sector. The escalating cost of money significantly influenced the new investment demand of corporations, while simultaneously limiting the capacity of individuals to secure new loans.

Conversely, the notably higher interest rates, though still below inflation, spurred interest in depositing funds in banks. Consequently, overall client deposits at banks reached PLN 1.92 trillion in Q2 2023, reflecting an 11%+ change over 1.5 years since the end of 2021. Concurrently, client loans experienced a contraction of over 2%, decreasing from PLN 1.29 trillion at the close of 2021 to PLN 1.26 trillion in Q2 2023.

Despite many challenges, the future outlook for key banking volumes remains favorable. Total banking assets are projected to grow steadily, potentially reaching PLN 3.5 trillion by the end of 2025.

Companies Mentioned

• Alior Bank
• Bank Pekao
• BNP Paribas
• Citibank Handlowy
• Getin Noble Bank (Previously owned Velo Bank before a compelled restructuring)
• ING Bank
• mBank
• Millennium
• Pekao
• PKO Bank Polski
• Santander
• SPV Bank – BGK (Government-owned)
• Velo Bank (Currently available for acquisition, previously owned by the government of Getin Noble Bank)

Key Topics Covered:

1. Macroeconomic overview

• Executive summary
• Poland – General overview
• Poland vs. other consumer markets in Europe, 2022
• Key macroeconomic indicators, 2018-2023F
• Foreign trade statistics, C/A balance, FDIs, 2018-2023F
• Unemployment, wages & salaries, 2018-2023F
• Consumer confidence Index evolution, 2017-Sep. 2023

2. Banking market – General trends

• CEE banking markets: Size vs. growth matrix, 2020-2022
• CEE banking penetration benchmarks – International comparison, 2022
• Structure of the Polish Banking Sector – types of banks and their size/count, 1H2023
• Evolution of banking assets by groups of owners (domestic/foreign), 2019-1H2023
• Top 10 foreign investors in the Polish banking market, 2022
• Banking assets evolution (LCU, EUR), 2018-1H2023
• Banking assets evolution by groups of banks, 2018-1H2023
• Top 10 commercial banks, market shares, ownership, 1H2023
• Evolution of market shares for top commercial banks, 2016-1H2023
• Concentration of the banking market, 2021 vs. 2022 (Assets, HH Index)
• Deposits of non-financial clients by segment, 2018-1H2023
• Loans to non-financial clients by segment, 2018-1H2023
• Non-performing loans value and NPL ratios by type of business segment, 2020-Jun.2023
• Non-performing retail loans, ratios by type of product, 2007-1H2023
• Central Bank interest rates and mandatory reserve policy, Jan. 2019- Oct. 2023
• Inter-bank interest rates, Jan 2013 – Sep. 2023: (WIBOR 3M, Polonia O/N)
• Tier 1 capital, CAR ratio for banks, 2020-Jun. 2023
• Bank outlets by groups of bank, agencies, 2018-2023
• Employment in commercial banks, bank assets per employee evolution, 2018-1H2023
• Direct employee costs evolution, 2017-2022
• ATM number and transaction value evolution 2018-1H2023, ATM players, 1H2023
• POS number and transaction value evolution 2018-1H2023, POS players, 2022

3. Retail banking

• Cash in circulation, cash vs. deposits ratio, 2018-1H2023
• Household deposits evolution, split local vs. foreign currency, 2018-1H2023
• Household deposits by type (current vs. term) and by client sub-segments, 2021-1H2023
• TOP banks serving household sector, market shares, 1H2023
• Payment account penetration in Poland, Bank account holders demography, 2020
• Bank account penetration & gap: Poland vs. other Europe, 2021
• Number of customers and number of current accounts of individuals (ROR) at major banks, 1H2023
• Retail deposits at major retail banks. Average deposit per single (current) account, 1H2023
• Total retail accounts at major banks – recent evolution, 2015-1H2023
• Internet use and Internet users in Poland, 2022
• Total number of accounts with online and mobile access, 2016-2022
• Top banks by number of active mobile app users, 2022
• Key mobile payment services in Poland classified by origin of funds, 2023
• Investment funds assets evolution, domestic and foreign funds, 2018-1H2023
• Investment funds – top 10 players, September 2023
• Personal Financial Assets (PFA) structure and evolution, 2018-1H2023
• Loans to household sector by type, evolution, 2018-1H2023
• Mortgage to household sector by currency- outstanding value, 2018-1H2023
• Mortgage to household sector – new sales, 2018-1H2023
• Consumer lending outstanding evolution, 2018-1H2023
• Consumer lending – new sales, 2020- 1H2023
• Payment cards
• Cards issued by type, 2018-1Q 2023
• Cards payments: Poland vs. Europe, growth vs. market development stage, 2019-2021
• Cards payments: International comparison, card payments value, volume, cards issued, 2021
• Card transactions by type (cashless, cash), share of cash transactions, 2018-2022
• Credit card transactions , values, volumes, per card evolution, 2018-2022
• Top players in credit cards business – issuers, co-branding partners, 1H2023

4. Corporate banking

• Corporate subjects by size, number, employment, revenues and profits, 2021
• Corporate subjects, revenue and profit evolution, 2016-2022
• Number of companies by turnover (companies with 10+ employees), 2022
• Corporate deposits and loans evolution, 2018-1H2023
• Top players in the corporate banking market, market shares in deposits and loans, 1H2023
• Leasing market, structure by industry, top players, 2016-2022
• Factoring market, top players, 2018-2022
• Non-treasury debt securities market, 2018-2022

5. Banks’ profitability

• Nominal rates on loans and deposits by segment, implied interest margins, Jan. 2020-Sep.2023
• Commercial banks – profitability tree, 2019-2022
• Top 5 commercial banks profitability tree – peers comparison, 2022 (PKO, Pekao, Santander, mBank, ING)
• Segment reporting (1/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2022
• Segment reporting (2/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2022
• Commercial banks – revenue, costs and profits composition, 2022

6. Banks’ valuation and M&A activity

• Share price performance in the stock market for key listed banks in Poland, Jan. 2020- Oct. 2023
• Market multiples for major listed banks in Poland, Nov. 2023
• Strategic control map for major listed banks in Poland, Nov. 2023
• Efficiency of top banks in Poland – Cost to income, Assets/Personnel/Branches benchmarks, 1H2023
• Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (1/4), 2005-2008
• Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (2/4), 2009-2011
• Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (3/4), 2012-2016
• Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (4/4), 2017-YTD

7. Top Banks Profiles

• Bank profiles: PKO Bank Polski
• Bank profiles: Bank Pekao
• Bank profiles: Santander

8. Mid-term forecasts

• Forecast – household loans & deposits, 2023-2025F
• Forecast – corporate loans & deposits, 2023-2025F
• Forecast – banking assets, 2023-2025F

9. Notes on methodology

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/y7pf7a

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